Oil flows through Hormuz will take time to recover, banks say

A recovery in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and oil production following the U.S.-Iran interim peace ​deal will take time, potentially several months, analysts at ‌two banks said.

Shipments through the Strait, through which about a fifth of global oil supply passes, were disrupted during the Iran conflict, sending oil ​prices sharply higher. Brent crude rose to as ​much as $126 a barrel in April, a four-year high.

Goldman ⁠Sachs said it expects Middle East Gulf exports to normalise to ​pre-war levels by the end of July, and crude production ​to recover by October.

While ship availability is not a binding constraint on exports, cautiousness by shipowners could limit them, it said.

"We see shippers’ ​risk aversion as a potential constraint on the flows, along ​with Iran’s geopolitical goals over the upcoming 60-day nuclear deal negotiations," the ‌bank ⁠said in a June 17 report.

BNP Paribas said that even in a best-case scenario, it would take several months for oil flows to normalise, and that this would require producers ​to bring back ​about 12 ⁠million barrels per day of shut-in production.

Bank of America said clearing mines would likely take ​months, not days, given logistical challenges, adding that ​oil ⁠markets could remain in deficit until the fourth quarter of 2026.