Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecasts due to elevated supply risks and said Brent could rise to $140 a barrel in 2027 if Gulf oil output stays 3.5 million bpd below its 2025 average.
The bank raised its December Brent crude oil price forecast to $105 a barrel from $90, and raised its US West Texas Intermediate forecast to $94 a barrel from $81.
Goldman Sachs also raised its average 2027 forecasts to $88 a barrel for Brent from $80 previously, and to $78 a barrel for WTI from $73.
The bank forecast an upside price scenario where Brent could reach $140 and average around $130 in 2027 if average Gulf output in 2027 remains 3.5 million barrels per day below its 2025 average.
Goldman Sachs said it expects markets to price in a higher risk premium, reflecting downside risks to Mideast supply, the length of past major oil supply shocks, and many market participants’ view that a lasting diplomatic breakthrough will be difficult to achieve.
“Intensified shipping attacks, damage to oil infrastructure, and a more persistent risk premium remain the key triggers of potential upside,” the bank said in a note.
Brent ended October at its highest level in six months amid concerns that the US-Iran conflict could escalate again after the US midterm elections.
“The Mideast and Russia-Ukraine conflicts, alongside broader geopolitical fragmentation, create high disruption risk, with the timing and location of disruptions nearly impossible to predict,” Goldman Sachs said.
