Goldman Sachs said in a note that global oil demand has fallen more sharply than expected, creating both upside and downside risks to its fourth-quarter 2026 Brent crude forecast of $90 per barrel and its WTI forecast of $83 per barrel.
The bank estimated that global oil demand declined by between 4 million and 5 million barrels per day in April, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz appears to have reduced worldwide demand by 4% to 5%.
According to Goldman Sachs, the decline was driven by weaker consumption, particularly in China and Western Europe, where April fuel retail sales data came in soft.
The bank’s estimates were based on three different approaches, including an analysis of global refinery activity, high-frequency demand indicators, and estimates from other analysts and trading firms.
While weaker demand poses downside risks to oil prices, Goldman Sachs also noted that there are significant upside risks if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and global supplies decline further.
