The world oil market will return to a surplus in the fourth quarter of this year, the International Energy Agency said, as Middle East exports recover faster than global oil demand despite continued attacks on shipping.
The agency also gave more details of remaining volumes to come from a record release of oil from its members' emergency reserves pledged in March, saying 71 million barrels would be made available by the end of February, including 15 million barrels of diesel to ease market tightness.
Oil supply will average 105 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, the Paris-based agency, which advises industrialised countries, said in a monthly report, 1.7 million bpd higher than forecast demand. The IEA had previously forecast a fourth-quarter supply deficit.
"The oil market is showing tentative signs of rebalancing, with global oil supplies surpassing demand for the first time since the outbreak of the war in Iran," the agency said in the report.
The report follows signs that Gulf oil producers are recovering exports disrupted since the start of the war in late February by using workarounds such as so-called dark crossings through the Strait of Hormuz, where tankers switch off tracking signals to evade attack.
The OPEC+ group, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, pumped 41.23 million bpd of crude in October, OPEC said on Wednesday, up about 2.04 million bpd from September and 97% of the pre-war February volume.
