JPMorgan, HSBC say oil supplies are recovering from Middle East disruption
JPMorgan estimates the global oil market returned to a surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September, widening to 1.4 million bpd in October
Reuters
Wednesday, 4 November 2026
The global oil market has moved back into surplus after months of disruption caused by the US-Israeli war with Iran, JPMorgan said, while HSBC raised its forecasts for Saudi Aramco crude oil production.
JPMorgan estimates the global oil market returned to a surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September, widening to 1.4 million bpd in October, nearly matching last year's average of 1.3 million bpd.
The bank said inventories and trade flows both indicated that excess barrels are returning to the market, with global crude imports rising to 44.9 million bpd in October, up 1.3 million bpd from a year earlier.
Middle East oil exports have recovered to about 20.7 million bpd from 9.8 million in March, though volumes remained lower than levels before Iran began at the end of February.
The bank estimates that Latin America alone has supplied about 1.5 million bpd more crude than a year ago, led by Brazil, Venezuela, Guyana and Argentina. Moreover, it stated that global demand had fallen by an estimated 3.3 million bpd since the start of the conflict, as high fuel prices and supply disruptions curbed consumption.
HSBC raised its fourth-quarter 2026 Saudi Aramco crude production forecast to 8.3 million bpd from 6.3 million, citing faster-than-expected export recovery.
The bank raised its 2027 production forecast to 9.8 million bpd from 8.8 million and said it expects output to return to about 10 million bpd by mid-2027. HSBC said October Saudi crude exports recovered to about 7 million bpd, near pre-conflict levels.