OPEC said the global economy may perform better than expected in the second half of the year, despite trade conflicts. Refineries' crude intake is expected to remain elevated to meet the uptick in summer travel, which will help support the demand outlook.
In its monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) left its forecasts for global oil demand growth unchanged for 2025 and 2026, following reductions in April, stating that the economic outlook remained robust.
"India, China, and Brazil are outperforming expectations so far, while the United States and the Eurozone are experiencing a continued rebound from last year," OPEC said in the report.
"With this, the second-half 2025 economic growth may turn out better than currently expected."
A solid economy shrugging off trade conflicts would make it easier for OPEC+, which groups OPEC plus Russia and other allies, to proceed with its plan to pump more barrels to regain market share after years of cuts aimed at supporting the market.
OPEC+ agreed on July 5 to raise production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, further accelerating output increases at its first meeting since oil prices jumped, then retreated, following Israeli and U.S. attacks on Iran.
Oil prices have not significantly fallen despite the larger than expected OPEC+ hike and U.S. President Donald Trump's 50-day deadline for Russia to end the Ukraine war, finding support from rising seasonal demand.
Global refinery crude intake posted a sharp increase of 2.1 million bpd in June from May as refiners returned from maintenance, a sign of a stronger oil market, OPEC said in the report, adding that throughput was likely to stay high.
"Refinery intakes globally, and particularly in the U.S., are expected to keep throughputs elevated to meet the seasonal uptick in transport fuel demand, especially that of gasoline, jet/kerosene and residual fuel," OPEC said.
OPEC's demand forecasts are at the higher end of the industry range, as the agency expects a slower energy transition than some other forecasters.
The International Energy Agency last week trimmed its demand forecasts but said the market may be tighter than it appears as refineries ramp up processing to meet summer travel demand.
