The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that the surplus in oil production—given the fast-growing crude output being released to the market by OPEC+ and a deceleration in demand—on average, since the start of the year, is 1.9 million barrels per day (mbd).
In its monthly report on the oil market, the IEA emphasizes that in September the production increase was “massive,” 5.6 mbd more than in the same month last year, of which 3.1 mbd corresponded to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+).
Based on the most recent agreements reached by OPEC+ partners, the authors of the study estimate that the cartel will bring to market, on average, 1.4 mbd more than in 2024, and in 2026, the increase will be another 1.2 mbd. Meanwhile, the rest of the producing countries will pump an additional 1.4 mbd on average this year and 1.2 mbd next year, especially driven by contributions from the United States, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Argentina.
The agency acknowledges that these projections could be affected by sanctions imposed on Russia and Iran, and by geopolitical conditions. On that point, it estimates that attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure (in the context of the Ukraine war) have reduced its capacities by about 500,000 barrels per day, leading to internal supply problems and lower exports.
Regarding global demand, the IEA has slightly revised downward its outlook for this year compared to last month, and now expects growth of 710,000 barrels per day compared to 2024, reaching 103.84 mbd.
For 2026, it also anticipates a similar increase, around 700,000 barrels per day.
The authors of the study note that in the third quarter, global consumption rose by 750,000 barrels per day compared to the same period in 2024. In that increase, part of it was a recovery, since the year-on-year increase in the second quarter had been only 420,000 barrels per day, due to the impact of the trade war triggered by Donald Trump.
The agency points out that demand’s evolution is marking a significant slowdown this year, considering that in 2024 the increase had been 980,000 barrels per day, and that in the 2010s increases averaged 1.3 mbd.
