OPEC+ is likely to consider a larger oil production increase of 411,000 barrels per day at its upcoming meeting, two sources familiar with the group’s position said

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) pumped 28.34 million barrels per day in January, 60,000 bpd less than in December, according to the survey, with Nigeria posting the largest decline

Oil prices are likely to fall this year as a wave of supply creates a surplus in the market, although geopolitical risks linked to Russia, Venezuela and Iran will continue to fuel volatility, Goldman Sachs said

All eyes will be on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies in 2026, and on how the cartel manages its decision-making process to balance a volatile market

In its monthly oil market report, the IEA now estimates global supply at 106.2 million barrels per day in 2025, up 3 million bpd from 2024, which is 100,000 bpd less than it forecast in November

The decision does not include the potential production increases that eight member countries may agree on, as these nations aim to finish returning to the market the barrels they voluntarily withdrew to support prices

The ministers of eight OPEC+ member countries, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, decided in an online meeting to increase their oil supply by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) starting in December

The International Energy Agency estimates that the oil production surplus, given the rapid increase in crude entering the market from OPEC+ and a slowdown in demand growth, has averaged 1.9 million barrels per day since the beginning of the year

The OPEC+ alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has agreed to a new increase in crude oil production for November of 137,000 barrels per day, marking its eighth consecutive monthly increase

OPEC made no changes to its relatively high global oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next, and said the world economy was maintaining a solid growth trend in the second half of this year