The war in Iran is currently cutting about 15 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil and refined products from the Gulf to global markets, which could push crude prices to $150 per barrel, research and consulting firm Wood Mackenzie said.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has vowed not to allow oil to leave the Middle East until U.S. and Israeli attacks cease.
Wood Mackenzie said: “Gulf countries produce a total of 20 million bpd of liquids, and 15 million bpd of exports have been removed from the global market.”
“Global oil demand of 105 million bpd will have to fall further to balance the market and, in our view, that will require Brent to rise to at least $150 per barrel in the coming weeks,” it added.
The firm also said Europe would feel the greatest impact, as Gulf refineries supply 60% of its jet fuel and 30% of its diesel.
“Much will depend on how long the war lasts, how long the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and whether the U.S. Navy can ensure safe passage for vessels by escorting ships,” it concluded, adding that “even after the conflict ends, the increase in supply will not be rapid.”
