Report warns of surge in planned fossil fuel production

Governments worldwide plan to produce 120% more fossil fuels by 2030 than the level consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, as outlined in the Paris Agreement, a report warned.

The study, prepared by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Climate Analytics, and the International Institute for Sustainable Development, highlighted that the figure represents a ten-percentage-point increase compared to the previous edition, published in 2023.

Government plans would exceed the levels consistent with limiting warming to below 2 degrees by 77%, up from 69% in the 2023 study.

The so-called “Production Gap Report,” which analyzes the plans of the world’s 20 largest fossil fuel producers—accounting for 80% of total output—stressed that governments now foresee even higher levels of coal production by 2035 and gas output by 2050 than projected last year.

Planned coal output is 7% higher than previously estimated, while gas production is 5% higher.

Seventeen of the 20 countries covered intend to increase production of at least one fossil fuel by 2030, and eleven expect to raise output more by that date than they projected two years ago.

The number of countries planning fossil fuel production in line with national and global net-zero targets has nevertheless risen from four to six.

The study underscores the urgent need for sharper and faster reductions in fossil fuel production to offset the lack of coordinated policy progress in ensuring a just transition.

“To keep the 1.5-degree goal within reach, the world needs rapid reductions in coal, oil, and gas, redirecting those resources into an energy transition that prioritizes equity and justice,” said Emily Ghosh, one of the report’s coordinators, in a statement.

Ghosh urged governments ahead of the upcoming climate summit “to scale up renewables, phase out fossil fuels, manage energy demand, and implement community-centered transitions to align with Paris Agreement obligations.”

The report also warned that despite global pledges to end fossil fuel subsidies, many governments continue to provide “substantial direct and indirect financial support.”

Among them are Canada, Brazil, China, India, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Russia, the United States, and Norway.